2019-05-30 —

...falling yields are to the economy what barometric pressure is to the weather: When they drop it's often a sign that some kind of storm is coming.

And lately, they've been falling fast. Everywhere. In Japan, Britain, Australia, Germany and the United States. Long-term yields on government bonds around the world are hitting some of their lowest levels in recent years.


Today, in the United States, a government bond that's due in three months will pay a higher rate than a government bond that is due in 10 years. These occurrences, called inversions, are rare, and they have grabbed Wall Street's attention for one simple reason: They have preceded every recession over the last 60 years (although some of those downturns took up to two years to materialize).


Since the Fed did an abrupt about-face on raising interest rates, investors have been slowly increasing the odds they put on the Fed actually starting to cut rates. And according to the bond market, those cuts are almost a done deal.

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