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2019-01-31 — sovereignman.com

In 2018, the federal government's deficit hit $1 trillion. But these are "good times," with soaring asset prices, solid corporate profits and record-low unemployment. What happens when a recession inevitably occurs. Our friend Jim Grant of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, says the deficit will blow out to $2 trillion.

So, $22 trillion in the whole and a $1 trillion deficit in a good year. Not to mention, interest rates are rising, which means all of this debt is just getting more expensive. Eventually, people will simply refuse to lend Uncle Sam any more money... because they know there's no way they'll be repaid.

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According to the Wall Street Journal, in the first eight months of 2018, overseas buyers of US Treasurys only bought half the amount they did over the same period in 2017.

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We don't know when this monetary experiment will end. The European Central Bank and Bank of Japan both essentially reneged on their plans to start tightening monetary policy. And yesterday, the Federal Reserve has signaled it will stop hiking rates. Global central banks, it seems, have already given up on their weak attempts to tighten... fearing the economy wouldn't hold up.

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