2018-10-08 —

... we know there is a strong relationship between network activity and the price. To put it more succinctly, the more network activity we have, the higher the price. But, there are limits to network throughput, and this puts a lid on the price in the short to medium term.

We have seen this limit tested recently, when the Bitcoin blocks filled up. This gave us the upper limit on the maximum number of daily transactions that people were willing to pay, because of the price of the fees... The soft limit and the hard limit change over time as new technology comes online, such as SegWit, Schnorr Signatures, and The Lightning Network...

Based solely on the expansion of the bitcoin network's capacity since the late-December 2017 peak of the last bubble, the author predicts another such bubble would reach about $100k (assuming no other changes). Very interesting.

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