2017-07-15 — blogspot.com
Understandably, the markets will interpret a dovish Yellen -- especially the nuanced language on the topic of inflation -- as rushing to the markets' defense. The view that the Fed won't tolerate even a modest market pullback is, again, further emboldened. And quickly global markets will return to the view that central bankers may talk "normalization," while their overarching anxiety for upsetting markets has diminished little.
These dynamics have unfolded over years and are well recognized in the marketplace. To be sure, ongoing tepid consumer price inflation seems to be the one view that markets hold with strong conviction. So when Yellen suggested that below target inflation would alter the trajectory of Fed "normalization," the markets immediately took notice. When she again referred to the "neutral rate" and implied that the Fed was currently near neutral, this further signaled a Fed that has developed its own notion of what these days constitutes "normal." Throw in that the FOMC plans to pause rate increases while gauging market reaction to its (cautious) balance sheet operations, and it has become apparent to the markets that the Fed won't be pushing rates much higher any time soon.
It's fair to say that the whole issue of "inflation" confounds the Fed these days. Despite antiquated analytical frameworks and econometric models, the Federal Reserve is showing zero inclination to rethink its approach. At the minimum, objective policy analysis would recognize today's nebulous link between monetary stimulus and consumer price inflation. Rational thinking would downgrade CPI as a policy guidepost, especially relative to indicators of broader price and financial stability. Still, consumer prices rising slightly below 2% have somehow become central to the argument for maintaining aggressive monetary accommodation.
It's by this point abundantly clear that contemporary monetary management exerts major direct influences on the structure of asset prices, while having dubious effect on aggregate consumer prices. This now discernable dynamic creates a momentous dilemma for central banks. Especially after the worldwide adoption of the Bernanke doctrine, it's fundamental to their approach that central banks retain the power to inflate out of trouble as necessary. Why fret debt accumulation, speculation and asset price Bubbles when central banks can always inflate the general price level, thereby reducing debt burdens and asset overvaluation?
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